Post hoc ergo propter hoc
Translated
from Latin “after this, therefore because of this"
Have you
heard about the
“gambler’s fallacy” before reading this? If yes, then, maybe you will still find
this an interesting angle, the ‘gambler’s fallacy’ is interesting because when
you follow trends then you will understand the relationship and the point I’m
trying to make. Because if you haven’t then maybe this information,
may save you a few shekels in your pocket? It’s simple really. I love
mathematics and science, and I suppose that’s why I chose to study artificial
intelligence at university.
Anyhow, the
gambler’s fallacy is similar to “Post hoc ergo propter hoc” or “Post hoc” the
short version often heard throughout the courts of the land. I say similar in
that the gambler’s fallacy is based on the belief that the odds don’t change
after an event that preceded it.
Let me
explain. You have heard about card counting associated with blackjack,
well, if you are good then you have an edge and without an edge, you are relying
just on luck, chance, or call it what you like. But, if you understand how odds
change dramatically as you proceed through a game of chance, then you can take
advantage of it, and pocket some extra cash legally. All you have to do is to
understand mathematics and that’s why I am here to show you. Please understand
this is not advice, just simply how you should look at things that come your
way.
I don’t
count cards, I can’t be bothered, but there’s not much point in playing the
game of blackjack and its other varieties because if you don’t bet big {only
with what you can afford to lose, because you shouldn’t bet your house on a
flip of a card, and it’s as simple as that, don’t do it.} When the odds are in
your favor then you are just gambling. You see there is a fine line between playing
a game of chance and having an edge and just gambling. I
don’t advocate gambling, no way. It’s just fun to be right
sometimes. If you do want to gamble, then that’s your choice, you and everyone
and their granny’s built Las Vegas.
If you
analyze at how hedge
funds work, they follow a similar principle, normally trends. Don’t forget they
say, they are, the smartest guys and girls in town. Well move over, because I
don’t know what table they have been feasting at, but I want some gravy as
well. It’s easy to make money in a market that’s in a bubble. You follow the
trend. And hopefully, you get out before someone bursts the bubble and you are
left with egg on your chops and an empty pocket.
Trends can be very profitable it’s
just like a stock market bubble, it’s hard to go against a trend, but equally, it’s important not to stick all your bankroll on one selection. And as long as
you don’t stick all your money down and only a small percentage then following
trends is the way to go.
Here’s an
example: say you toss
a penny 10 times and the odds are exactly ½ of getting a head or a tail each
time you toss the coin. So
the true odds don’t change. Why? Because as I have mentioned in this article
just because something happened before, bears no relation to what happens
next{Post hoc}. This is similar to the game of roulette where you have a run of
black or red numbers come up, but why do some people think – the number, the wheel, the
universe, and whoever has the memory of what happened before. God said, "I
can't remember."
Do you
remember the article
on here about the many who broke the bank of Monte Carlo? Well, what some of
them did was completely opposite to what most gamblers do. Most punters would
at some point have been backing red in the hope the run of blacks would end.
But history and a lot of things in this universe don’t work like that.
Anyhow, what
happened on that
famous occasion when the casinos literally cleaned up was everyone and
their granny kept on backing red in the hope that the run of blacks would stop
but, it didn’t, it went on for an incredible 30 odd times before a red turned
up.
Just think 1 to the power of 30 - 1 that’s =
2000000000000000000000000000000 that’s big. I hope I got this right because my
scientific calculator is on the brink of a mental collapse its battery life is
dodgy. I have to give it a big knock just so the Led lights up. So what, yes
it’s a big number and I have made my point. It’s a really big number and I have
had lots of hot dinners.
Take a look at a sequence of numbers or in this example, Say
you toss a coin 100 times in theory and the odds are the same for each toss of
the coin. Right, yes, but take a look at any sequence of numbers or tosses of a
coin and what do you find? Well, what do you see? Over a reasonable sequence, it
should even out roughly 50/50, but in that sequence, the odds can sometimes
appear to be in your favor then it is time to take advantage of this anomaly.
You have it, a pattern. Take a look at this sequence of 10 tosses of a coin
done at random. I tossed a
coin 10 times to see what would happen.
Example: I just tossed a 2 penny coin 10 times and
recorded the results, purely random if there is such a thing. Heads = H and
Tails = T
H,T,H,T,H,H,H,H,H,T Can you see the pattern? 5 heads in a
row.
The odds
haven’t changed, but
your edge has. You figure it out.
Also, if you
had been backing purely heads
then you were right 7/10 times and the true odds are not now 1/2 per toss. They
are 1.25 and they have increased purely by the sequence. The real edge {s} is sometimes
difficult to find, that's why spotting a pattern is a daily pattern for
logarithmic computers in the city. Whoever spots the pattern emerging gains the
edge, it’s called finding the alpha edge in financial circles and happens in
milliseconds every second of the trading day. "I made a million, Today. What
did you do?"
Ask a city
trader what the
alpha edge is? And [they}] will probably say its the biggest bonus builder in
history.
P.S. Sponsored by Madbrokes a comedian on antidepressants.
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In my book “It’s Never Too Late” read how dreams do come true, but be careful what you wish for. Understand the secret of greed and you will attain one of the secrets of prosperity. The book will also take you on a journey and explores love, money, luck, and much more.
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Hey, Chuck. Did you bring any spending money? Viva la vida loca.
Conducting a Survey into Precognitive Choices
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